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The notion of humanity

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reaching the stars in a conquest of space
is a modern mythology.

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It is part of our collective imagination
and is infused

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in our culture and politics.

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Increasingly, billionaire technologists
insist that in order for our species

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to survive,
we must inhabit alien worlds such as Mars.

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But is there really an alternative planet
for humanity?

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Or are we deluding ourselves
with dreams of alternative worlds

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for humankind
that are based on faulty assumptions?

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In this episode of Breaking Green,

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we'll talk with Dennis Meredith,
author of the new book Earthbound.

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Meredith argues
that current science indicates that humans

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are fundamentally unable to survive
long-term deep space exploration,

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and that its promoters are ignoring
research that clearly shows

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humans are an earthbound species,
despite visions of reaching the stars.

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He is author of numerous books,

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including How to Reach Key Audiences
to Advance Your Work,

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The Climate Pandemic: How Climate
Disruption Threatens Human Survival,

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and Earthbound:
The Obstacles to Human Space

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Exploration and the Promise
of Artificial Intelligence.

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Meredith holds

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a Bachelor's of science degree
in chemistry from the University of Texas

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and a master's of science in biochemistry

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and science writing 
from the University of Wisconsin.

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Dennis Meredith has worked
as a science communicator

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at leading research universities
including MIT, Caltech,

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Cornell, Duke,
and the University of Wisconsin.

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Dennis Meredith
welcome to Breaking Green.

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Thanks so much for having me, Steve.

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It's a pleasure to be here with you.

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It's a pleasure to have you.

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I've read your most recent book,
earthbound, and I will tell you it

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addresses some topics
I have been thinking about for some years.

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For many decades,
there's been this mythology, this hope,

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this narrative that humankind

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is going to to go to other planets
and maybe other stellar systems

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become a multiple planet species.

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But you take a  position

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in your book that there are hurdles
that make that very unlikely,

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if not impossible.

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So what brought you, Dennis Meredith,

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to write such a contrarian book?

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Well, first of all, I am a big space buff.

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I  watched when I was at Caltech,
I watched the Voyager flybys.

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I've seen the space shuttle land.

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I've gone to the, NASA,

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visitor's centers, and I've

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watched the video of happy astronauts
in space.

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And, 
that was what I brought to to the book.

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But then I decided, let's let's
just take a look at the science.

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Let's take a look at what
the research really says

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about what, whether there are obstacles,

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to humans, going into deep space.

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 I should contrast deep space
with, orbital space around the Earth.

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That's a protected harbor.

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It's protected from from radiation,

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because of the, 
the Earth's magnetosphere.

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And it's protected from, isolation
because astronauts can get back home

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pretty quickly. So.

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Okay, I want to know what was happened
in deep space.

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Well, deep space
is, impossible for for people to survive.

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The radiation is far more intense.

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Gravity, weightlessness.

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You have to, deal with weightlessness
for for decades.

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I mean, for many years, if you're in,
if you're going on a long mission,

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there's there's toxic,
chemicals in the spacecraft.

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You can't take a bath.

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You're psychologically isolated.

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And so my conclusion, which surprised me,
frankly, once I went into the

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the literature, was it
was that every organ in the human body

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is damaged by being in deep space

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from weightlessness
and radiation and toxic chemicals.

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So, that was the conclusion I came to.

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Then I went looked
at what NASA has been saying,

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and they sort of glossed this all over.

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As I said,
they're these really, merry astronauts

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in the space station
that are very happy and so forth.

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But, it's that's not the truth.

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And so I felt like

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the book really had to tell the truth
from a scientific point of view.

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Could you give us a little, breakdown

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of some of the science institutions
you've worked for in the past?

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Well, I've worked for, Caltech, MIT,

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Cornell,

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Duke and University of Wisconsin
as a research communicator.

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And in many of those places,
I was involved in the space program.

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Reporting on it and writing about it.

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You mentioned the Earth's magnetosphere.

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You know, the Van Allen belts.

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It takes radiation from the sun and,

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cosmic radiation and shields the Earth.

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And that's generated by a liquid

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metal iron core in the Earth.

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There is no such core in Mars.

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There is no such shielding,

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from radiation on the surface of Mars
and then getting there.

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So I really think we should start off
by talking

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about the elephant in the room
and what no one really ever talks about.

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And if they do, they say, oh, well,
this this problem will be solved.

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Let's let's talk about radiation.

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The types that astronauts can experience
and and what that really means,

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for a human being, to be exposed to, 
not only just

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solar radiation, but cosmic radiation
if they're in deep space.

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But you're absolutely right.

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NASA has not talked about,

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not made very public
these kinds of risks, but privately.

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And if you delve into the, NASA's,
websites,

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you'll find what they have,
what they call red risks,

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and there's a whole bunch of red risks
that they have not solved.

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And the biggest one is radiation.

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And radiation
comes in the form of what I call,

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22 caliber bullets and,

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rifle
bullets and armor piercing radiation.

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And the armor
piercing radiation are cosmic rays.

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Now, they don't

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they don't, very few make it to Earth
because of the magnetosphere.

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But in outer space, these,
these armor piercing,

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armor piercing radiation
can go through anything.

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And if you try to shield,

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if you try to give astronauts
a lot of shielding,

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what happens is the cosmic rays
penetrate the shielding,

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and they create
a cascade of secondary particles.

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So shrapnel, as it were.

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And the shrapnel is still dangerous.

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And and to give you an example
of how dangerous it is, between the Apollo

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16 and 17 missions, there was an intense
solar radiation storm.

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So cosmic rays come from outside 
the solar system.

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But the sun also produces
this high energy radiation.

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Between Apollo 16 and 17,
there was a radiation storm

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that if Apollo astronauts

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had been in space between the Earth
and the moon, they would have died.

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Now, that same radiation,

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the solar radiation and cosmic radiation
is not stopped on

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on the moon, on Mars
or in interplanetary space.

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There's nothing to stop it.

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So the the people, astronauts
who land on the moon

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or who attempt to get to
Mars are going to be exposed to this,

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and it's one of those red risks

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that has not been solved,
and it will not be solved.

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So if someone were to say to you,

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Dennis, look to their going
to come up with shielding.

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What would you say to that? Well,

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you could
shield it, but then you'd have to have,

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an object the size of the Earth
with a magnetic field

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the size of the Earths, to shield it.

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So I'm not sure you could do that
in space.

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But I should say that although,
obviously they've not had any humans,

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in interplanetary space
for any length of time.

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They have done
experimental studies on Earth with animals

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in particle accelerators that they exposed
to simulated cosmic radiation.

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And so they have solid laboratory
experiments, evidence

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that this cosmic radiation
does cause damage to cells, to tissues

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and to whole organs,
all of the organs of the body.

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So, it's not possible

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to shield yourself
from cosmic radiation.

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You had an interesting segment?

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It was called brain damage from armor
piercing radiation.

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You talk about that
a little bit. Well, yeah.

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First of all, you have
you have brain damage from,

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cosmic rays from radiation,
but then you have

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the brain is is weightless,
and the brain is just like pudding.

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It's not a very solid organ.

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And so the brain tends to float around
in the skull in weightlessness.

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And so at the same time, it's

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being bombarded by cosmic radiation
and other radiation

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it's shifting shape,
and it's undergoing all sorts of,

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physical changes
due to the weightlessness.

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Now, there has been research
with animals and MRI

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studies with astronauts
that show that this happens.

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And they also show that,
it creates psychological impacts.

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There's a thing called
there's a phenomenon called space brain.

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Astronauts, recognize that

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they get what's called space brain.

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And that's where they get foggy.

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They can't concentrate.

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And it's because their their brains
are undergoing all of these insults, both

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from radiation and from

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weightlessness, but also, toxic chemicals.

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The interior of spacecraft,

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has all sorts of toxic chemicals
that come from plastics

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and so forth.

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So there's all of these insults going
on, to the brain

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that caused this kind
of, psychological impact.

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And the eyes are

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also strangely, susceptible

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to problems from weightlessness.

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Yes. The minute the astronauts

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go onto the International Space Station,
their

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their vision starts to get cloudy.

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Because the,

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they’re not sure exactly why they think it has
to do with weightlessness effect

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on the on the eye,
but it gets cloudier and cloudier

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and a lot of astronauts on the space
station have to start wearing glasses.

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And it gets worse.

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And they don't know
specifically what causes this.

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They do know that it's
that it's almost inevitable.

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So you have a situation where, astronauts

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who go on deep space
missions or to the moon.

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They're going to
their eyes are going to get more cloudy.

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They may even go blind. They're not sure.

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What's going to happen.

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And also,
they undergo these brain changes, too.

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So imagine an astronaut who,
has been in space for nine months

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with all these insults,
and then they have to land on Mars,

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and their bones are weak,
and their muscles are weak, and their

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their brains are not working right.
They can't see very well.

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And instantly they have to transition
to to a functional status.

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And wearing a 100 pound spacesuit
and going out and doing things to survive.

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There are things you don’t
hear about very often.

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And, I think this book is very
interesting to bring up, these topics.

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And we're just we're just
we're just on the surface of it.

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And I know there's a lot to talk about,
but, you know, we have to be careful

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not to confuse our audience 
with too many things at once.

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It's just sort of, especially since,

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you know, we've grown
up, many of us, being told

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that, you know, all of these challenges
are going to fall away

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because of human ingenuity
and this almost predestined,

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fate.

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And it's in science
fiction programs all the time.

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Just these ways
to address things

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like gravity, like weightlessness.

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We'll just turn the ship.

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We'll just we'll just rotate it.

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You know, the 2001,

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I think Space Odyssey
famously addressed that in the beginning.

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And a lot of people know that if

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if you're in a rotating, vessel,
it can simulate gravity.

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Why can't that be used

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on a trip to Mars, Dennis?

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Well, well,
first of all, building a rotating

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nobody NASA has never considered
seriously building

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rotating spacecraft because they know
that would be incredibly expensive.

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You'd have to have all this machinery.

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It would have to work perfectly
if you wanted.

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If somebody
if an astronaut wanted to go outside,

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they would actually have

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to stop the space station
so that, he or she didn't get thrown off.

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And then there'd be this Coriolis effect,

00:14:02:21 - 00:14:06:08
that where your feet are going
slower than your head.

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You know, it's like being on a merry
go round where you hanging your head out,

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and it gets you can't...

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people can't cope with that.

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And so nobody has ever, seriously
considered artificial gravity.

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If you wanted to have artificial
gravity work,

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you'd have to have a space station
the size of a city

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to get rid of the Coriolis effect
and deal with it.

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But, 
it's just not considered practical at all.

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Right.

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I mean, that seems like a simple solution,
but but engineering wise, that's huge.

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Economics wise, that's huge.

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And then let's say you
want to have a colony on Mars.

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You still have reduced gravity

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on Mars and definitely on the moon.

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What is, Mars?

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It’s, 40%?

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That's still that's not weightless,
but that's going to

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probably have an effect on human

00:15:04:02 - 00:15:07:02
human beings living there
for an extended period of time.

00:15:07:19 - 00:15:09:03
Actually. Yes. Absolutely.

00:15:09:03 - 00:15:13:04
They're not sure that people can even,
survive

00:15:13:04 - 00:15:18:03
well, at 40% gravity, because we 
evolved in 100% gravity.

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So even if, you say, oh,
there is gravity on Mars, it's only 40%.

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And so it has huge effects,
all sorts of effects for example,

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because Mars has lower
gravity, dust storms

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can be just hell because the dust
will stay in the in the air,

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the atmosphere for weeks on end.

00:15:38:08 - 00:15:41:08
So and then, of course, as I said,

00:15:41:18 - 00:15:45:21
when an astronaut, lands on Mars
after being in space

00:15:46:04 - 00:15:49:19
for, for nine months,
even though it's 40% gravity,

00:15:50:01 - 00:15:55:22
they have to weigh 100, 150
pound on Mars spacesuit to cope.

00:15:56:03 - 00:15:59:08
And so even though the Mars,
gravity is lower,

00:15:59:08 - 00:16:02:11
it's still profoundly, affecting.

00:16:03:21 - 00:16:04:11
Right.

00:16:04:11 - 00:16:08:02
And then there's, there's issues,
that you bring up in the book

00:16:08:02 - 00:16:11:11
that you don't see often addressed
even in science fiction.

00:16:11:23 - 00:16:15:13
Regolith or

00:16:15:19 - 00:16:18:19
sharp, dust on the moon,

00:16:19:00 - 00:16:23:05
hasn't been smoothed by winds or erosion.

00:16:23:13 - 00:16:26:07
It's basically due to,

00:16:26:07 - 00:16:30:18
meteoroids or meteoric,

00:16:30:18 - 00:16:35:01
explosions and abrasions
and, and radiation. It’s very sharp.

00:16:35:14 - 00:16:39:23
And there's a lot of experience,
from the lunar missions

00:16:39:23 - 00:16:43:08
when it comes to how abrasive it is
for

00:16:43:08 - 00:16:46:10
suits during these short missions.

00:16:46:10 - 00:16:47:15
These short missions.

00:16:47:15 - 00:16:52:02
Now, that, this  lunar dust

00:16:52:02 - 00:16:56:06
just degrades spacesuits,
that it's very hazardous to humans.

00:16:56:18 - 00:17:02:07
So could you talk about the dust hazards
that, we really don't see a lot about?

00:17:03:11 - 00:17:05:07
Yeah, they really dismissed

00:17:05:07 - 00:17:08:11
they downplayed the dangers of dust.

00:17:08:22 - 00:17:12:13
But the Apollo astronauts
noticed that they all got lung problems,

00:17:13:04 - 00:17:14:17
from the dust.

00:17:14:17 - 00:17:17:17
And they all got what they call
lunar hay fever.

00:17:18:04 - 00:17:21:04
And also it began to abrade their suits.

00:17:21:08 - 00:17:23:06
It got into electronics.

00:17:23:06 - 00:17:26:01
And this dust is not dust like on Earth.

00:17:26:01 - 00:17:29:23
It's, imagine dust
that is as sharp as razor blades

00:17:30:17 - 00:17:34:11
and they also have really weird problems
because of,

00:17:35:14 - 00:17:37:01
the gravity on Mars.

00:17:37:01 - 00:17:40:00
They get what they call dust bullets.

00:17:40:00 - 00:17:44:19
If a large spacecraft
lands on the moon,

00:17:45:08 - 00:17:49:02
the explosion of, dust and rocks
and so forth can send

00:17:49:02 - 00:17:52:17
rocks at high speeds
across the whole lunar surface.

00:17:53:09 - 00:17:56:16
So if you're near a spacecraft,
it's landing on the moon.

00:17:57:01 - 00:17:58:07
You know, you can have something

00:17:58:07 - 00:18:01:20
that did damage to your to your suit
or to the habitat.

00:18:02:01 - 00:18:05:09
So they have dust bullets, on the moon.

00:18:05:14 - 00:18:08:14
Well, Mars is terrible in another way.

00:18:08:16 - 00:18:11:16
The dust on Mars is, has been,

00:18:11:16 - 00:18:14:16
smoothed by the winds, but it's toxic.

00:18:15:00 - 00:18:18:21
It has chemicals in it
that that are toxic.

00:18:18:21 - 00:18:23:11
So the whole business of, in The Martian,
where he was growing potatoes on Mars,

00:18:23:19 - 00:18:28:15
he would have been poisoned immediately
by the poison, in the dust.

00:18:29:00 - 00:18:29:08
Yeah.

00:18:29:08 - 00:18:33:10
In the book, I think you say that
it's a class of, perchlorates. Yes.

00:18:33:22 - 00:18:38:08
So there's actually a lot of, perchlorate
in in Martian soil.

00:18:38:16 - 00:18:41:20
And that's another, toxic aspect.

00:18:42:08 - 00:18:44:02
You don't hear about that.

00:18:44:02 - 00:18:47:02
You don't hear about the radiation
hazard, the perchlorate.

00:18:47:11 - 00:18:49:16
Now, let's just talk about
distance and time.

00:18:49:16 - 00:18:50:01
I mean,

00:18:51:00 - 00:18:52:19
for a mars mission.

00:18:52:19 - 00:18:55:08
And Mars is relatively close, right?

00:18:55:08 - 00:18:56:03
I mean, we're talking

00:18:56:03 - 00:19:00:00
we're not even talking about interstellar,
which, I mean, that's just

00:19:01:04 - 00:19:04:15
that's a whole other category
of not going to happen.

00:19:05:15 - 00:19:08:11
In my opinion. There's the

00:19:08:11 - 00:19:11:14
the economics is not there,
you know, just the distance.

00:19:12:06 - 00:19:15:06
But let's just talk about
these concerns,

00:19:15:14 - 00:19:19:17
these concerns of radiation,
toxic environment,

00:19:20:04 - 00:19:23:04
microgravity or what we call
weightlessness.

00:19:23:14 - 00:19:27:00
And the distance and time

00:19:27:00 - 00:19:30:03
it takes to go from Earth to Mars.

00:19:30:03 - 00:19:31:22
It's not a straight shot, either.

00:19:31:22 - 00:19:36:12
I mean, it's, you know, you look at Mars,
you say, oh, that's so far away.

00:19:36:13 - 00:19:40:04
Orbital mechanics is such that,

00:19:40:04 - 00:19:43:20
and the energy that that you use
to get off the Earth, you're going to have

00:19:43:20 - 00:19:47:09
to take these long trajectories,
and we don't need to get into it.

00:19:47:09 - 00:19:51:00
But, you know, you got the conjunction
class and the opposition

00:19:51:00 - 00:19:54:00
class launches all that type of stuff. But

00:19:55:00 - 00:19:56:19
what's the average

00:19:56:19 - 00:20:02:05
trip look like or what's
what's an optimal trip look like to Mars?

00:20:02:05 - 00:20:06:18
What's the amount of time and
before you get there.

00:20:06:18 - 00:20:10:14
And then how long do you have to stay on
the surface if you land and not an

00:20:10:14 - 00:20:11:22
orbital mission around Mars.

00:20:11:22 - 00:20:16:15
But if you land, you're going
to have to wait for another launch window.

00:20:16:15 - 00:20:22:21
So what does an optimal trip
to Mars look like, and how long

00:20:23:03 - 00:20:27:06
would a human being
or a group of human beings have to endure,

00:20:27:23 - 00:20:30:18
these hazards

00:20:30:18 - 00:20:34:01
if they were on such a trip.
You'd be in your spacecraft,

00:20:34:01 - 00:20:36:08
which would be the size of a motorhome

00:20:36:08 - 00:20:39:08
with several other people, 3
or 4 other people for nine months.

00:20:39:21 - 00:20:42:21
There are no windows
because there's nothing to look out at.

00:20:43:01 - 00:20:43:18
You're weightless.

00:20:43:18 - 00:20:46:09
You're
you're being exposed to gravity for that,

00:20:46:09 - 00:20:49:09
 to weightlessness
for that nine months.

00:20:49:13 - 00:20:50:21
You have to eat packaged food.

00:20:50:21 - 00:20:52:15
You can't take a bath.

00:20:52:15 - 00:20:55:04
It really gets smelly in there. And then.

00:20:55:04 - 00:20:57:04
And then you get to Mars

00:20:57:04 - 00:21:00:13
and you go down to the surface,
and you have to be there for a month.

00:21:01:10 - 00:21:04:06
That's one one of the, 
one of the types of missions.

00:21:04:06 - 00:21:08:01
So you have to deal with being,
at 40%, Earth

00:21:08:01 - 00:21:12:04
gravity for a month inside a spacesuit
or inside a habitat.

00:21:12:04 - 00:21:18:08
And then you have to take off again and
have another nine months, back to Earth.

00:21:19:01 - 00:21:24:03
And so that it's just at this whole time
you're exposed to except when you're

00:21:24:03 - 00:21:27:08
on the Martian surface, you're exposed
to weightlessness, you're exposed to,

00:21:27:20 - 00:21:31:18
toxic chemicals,
you're exposed to radiation.

00:21:31:23 - 00:21:36:23
And you also have to cope with alarms that
that require you to fix the spaceship.

00:21:37:11 - 00:21:42:01
And, the ISS has several
dozen alarms a year

00:21:42:10 - 00:21:45:22
where they have to fix the ISS or die.

00:21:47:00 - 00:21:50:05
So you
have to carry tons and tons of equipment,

00:21:50:05 - 00:21:52:23
of spare parts, tons and tons of food.

00:21:52:23 - 00:21:57:03
You have to figure out how to get rid
of your waste, and so forth.

00:21:57:03 - 00:22:00:03
So it's just it's hell in space.

00:22:00:20 - 00:22:03:02
You you have this this radiation.

00:22:03:02 - 00:22:06:16
You have the the normal
psychological effects of being cramped

00:22:06:16 - 00:22:10:02
into these quarters,
with other people.

00:22:10:13 - 00:22:14:23
But then you have,
you know, psychological degradation

00:22:14:23 - 00:22:19:09
is expected from radiation,
weightlessness, vision problems,

00:22:19:20 - 00:22:22:20
from microgravity or weightlessness,

00:22:23:14 - 00:22:27:16
then the alarms,
then then all these things

00:22:27:16 - 00:22:31:16
that have to be addressed, these repairs,

00:22:32:05 - 00:22:35:19
you're going to have to do it
in a degraded state.

00:22:37:17 - 00:22:41:05
Yes. And in fact, it's impossible,
at least in my,

00:22:41:05 - 00:22:44:13
to my mind, to train astronauts
to handle all these things.

00:22:44:13 - 00:22:48:05
There was one study that said that,
that astronauts

00:22:49:01 - 00:22:52:22
that are supposed to go
to Mars need to learn 2000 skills.

00:22:53:21 - 00:22:57:05
And, even the astronauts go to the ISS,

00:22:57:05 - 00:23:00:20
they've said I was supposed
to do something, but I completely forgot

00:23:00:21 - 00:23:03:21
how to do it
because I was trained years ago.

00:23:04:16 - 00:23:09:03
And and thus, I need to rely on the people
on the ground.

00:23:09:03 - 00:23:13:02
Well, you can't rely on the people
on the ground when you're in mid, mid

00:23:13:03 - 00:23:18:13
flight to Mars because the delay
and so forth and you're stuck.

00:23:18:13 - 00:23:21:01
You can't you can't turn around, go back.

00:23:21:01 - 00:23:24:05
Because you're on this, this

00:23:25:03 - 00:23:28:23
trip toward Mars
that, will take you there.

00:23:28:23 - 00:23:30:00
And the only thing you could do

00:23:30:00 - 00:23:31:17
would be to loop around the planet
and come back,

00:23:31:17 - 00:23:33:18
but that would still be
another nine months.

00:23:33:18 - 00:23:37:07
So it's it's
just an unsolvable problem, in my opinion.

00:23:37:15 - 00:23:41:05
And one thing I would
I would suggest people watch is

00:23:41:10 - 00:23:44:16
when somebody comes back
from the International Space Station,

00:23:45:00 - 00:23:49:13
you will never see an astronaut
get out of the capsule and walk away.

00:23:50:03 - 00:23:55:06
They put them on a stretcher because when
you come back from Earth, 

00:23:55:06 - 00:23:58:00
from the ISS you are crippled.

00:23:58:00 - 00:23:59:09
You can't see very well.

00:23:59:09 - 00:24:01:02
Your brain is foggy.

00:24:01:02 - 00:24:04:02
Your bones and muscles have deteriorated.

00:24:04:02 - 00:24:09:10
And so NASA does not very often show
what happens when an astronaut

00:24:09:10 - 00:24:12:21
actually gets out of a capsule
and goes onto that stretcher.

00:24:14:08 - 00:24:16:23
Let's say we say, okay,

00:24:16:23 - 00:24:19:12
we can send someone to Mars

00:24:19:12 - 00:24:22:12
land and even get them back.

00:24:22:17 - 00:24:26:12
Let's say that's and you're saying
no, space is a serial killer.

00:24:26:12 - 00:24:30:01
You know, there's all these problems
and the synergistic effect

00:24:30:01 - 00:24:33:21
of all these problems
just makes it a nonstarter.

00:24:33:21 - 00:24:37:18
And I tend to agree with you, I definitely
wouldn't want to be on the mission.

00:24:37:18 - 00:24:41:01
And I don't know if would be ethical
to send anyone on that mission.

00:24:41:01 - 00:24:42:14
As you raise in your book.

00:24:42:14 - 00:24:45:14
But let's say you can do that.

00:24:45:18 - 00:24:49:01
This notion of having a colony on
Mars or that

00:24:49:01 - 00:24:52:19
humans are going to adapt
to other planets.

00:24:53:09 - 00:24:56:22
Looking at just this,
it's just it's crazy.

00:24:56:22 - 00:25:02:17
Even Elon Musk has said that
a colony on Mars would cost $1 trillion.

00:25:03:10 - 00:25:05:17
Now, I should also add that I did.

00:25:05:17 - 00:25:10:20
I did a section on what it would be like
to be a colonist on Mars.

00:25:11:01 - 00:25:14:22
You would be at constantly,
you would constantly required

00:25:15:03 - 00:25:19:04
supplies from Earth because you wouldn't
be able to grow food on Mars,

00:25:19:12 - 00:25:23:14
because you'd need acres and acres
and acres of, of, enclosed,

00:25:23:15 - 00:25:27:23
growth chambers to grow for,
for a minimal number of people, you'd need

00:25:27:23 - 00:25:32:05
specialized plants, you need specialized
equipment, you need to recycle everything.

00:25:32:09 - 00:25:36:18
So you'd have to have a constant
supply of food and spare parts.

00:25:37:02 - 00:25:40:02
So a Mars colony would be constantly

00:25:40:07 - 00:25:43:02
in danger, of collapse,

00:25:43:02 - 00:25:47:04
because they would require this
constant supply of, of, equipment.

00:25:47:11 - 00:25:48:21
So no viability there.

00:25:48:21 - 00:25:50:15
I mean, the argument of Musk's, though,

00:25:50:15 - 00:25:53:22
on the other hand, is
if we don't become a multi-planet species

00:25:53:22 - 00:25:56:22
and he's I think he's ripping off
other people when it comes to saying this.

00:25:56:22 - 00:26:01:10
I mean, it's part of old Rand reports
and stuff, Wernher von Braun, whatever.

00:26:01:15 - 00:26:04:15
If we don't become a multi-planet species,
we will...

00:26:04:16 - 00:26:06:15
We face extinction.

00:26:06:15 - 00:26:10:10
Well, I don't just
I human beings aren't going to be viable,

00:26:11:14 - 00:26:12:18
you know,

00:26:12:18 - 00:26:17:14
and autonomous aren't on an alien planet,
given... it's just not going to happen.

00:26:18:02 - 00:26:20:01
Yeah, I say that

00:26:20:01 - 00:26:22:13
let's let's forget about the space
frontier.

00:26:22:13 - 00:26:25:13
Let's have an environmental
frontier on Earth.

00:26:25:16 - 00:26:28:22
We don't know all of the species
that exist on Earth.

00:26:29:11 - 00:26:31:10
And we haven't explored Earth yet.

00:26:31:10 - 00:26:32:20
So let's explore Earth.

00:26:32:20 - 00:26:37:02
If you go, if you go to Google
and you type in new species discovered,

00:26:37:15 - 00:26:40:02
you will find all sorts of stories
about new species

00:26:40:02 - 00:26:41:16
constantly being discovered on Earth.

00:26:41:16 - 00:26:46:07
So, I want my my takeaway message
from my own,

00:26:47:02 - 00:26:51:02
personal,
feelings is let's finish exploring Earth.

00:26:51:05 - 00:26:54:20
Let's have an environmental frontier
where we concentrate on Earth.

00:26:54:20 - 00:26:58:21
We concentrate on, preserving Earth
and understanding Earth

00:26:59:07 - 00:27:02:10
before we spend tons and tons
and tons of money sending,

00:27:02:19 - 00:27:05:22
sending astronauts on a one way trip.

00:27:05:22 - 00:27:09:09
And I'm afraid it would be a one way trip
to to another planet.

00:27:09:14 - 00:27:11:16
And then they talk about terraforming
Mars.

00:27:11:16 - 00:27:15:00
Well, that's that's first of all, nobody's
figured out how to do it.

00:27:15:16 - 00:27:19:15
And secondly, it would take centuries
to do, and it probably will...

00:27:19:15 - 00:27:21:18
You're not going to create a I mean,

00:27:23:00 - 00:27:26:08
magnetic field around Mars, I don't know.

00:27:26:08 - 00:27:28:20
And how long
have they been talking about this?

00:27:28:20 - 00:27:31:20
I mean, it goes back to the 40s
with  Oberth,

00:27:32:08 - 00:27:37:17
with, Walt Disney
was part of the push back in the day.

00:27:37:17 - 00:27:40:18
I don't know a you
you remember that, don't you?

00:27:41:01 - 00:27:42:16
Wernher von... oh, yeah.

00:27:42:16 - 00:27:46:12
I was a big fan back then of Wernher Von
Braun and Disney and so forth.

00:27:46:12 - 00:27:49:12
Yeah,
they're what I call cosmic cheerleaders

00:27:49:19 - 00:27:52:02
that, that really are advocating Mars.

00:27:52:02 - 00:27:55:04
And these this includes people,
the billionaires.

00:27:55:04 - 00:27:58:04
It includes, profit seeking corporations.

00:27:58:10 - 00:28:00:14
It includes NASA itself.

00:28:00:14 - 00:28:03:14
It includes these space, space advocates
and so forth.

00:28:03:16 - 00:28:06:06
And it's basically just just hand-waving,

00:28:06:06 - 00:28:09:06
that they want to go
they want to go do this.

00:28:09:11 - 00:28:12:08
But the hard numbers are
that it would cost

00:28:12:08 - 00:28:15:08
$210 billion to mount,

00:28:17:07 - 00:28:18:16
a Mars mission.

00:28:18:16 - 00:28:21:15
And it just it's just
why it's not worth it.

00:28:21:15 - 00:28:24:10
Let's spend the $200 billion on Earth.

00:28:24:10 - 00:28:26:09
Where it will do some good.

00:28:26:09 - 00:28:31:09
I really this jumped out of me
in your book... I love this.

00:28:31:09 - 00:28:32:08
You wrote.

00:28:32:08 - 00:28:37:03
I would argue that admitting
that we are deeply dependent on our home

00:28:37:03 - 00:28:40:22
planet would help us develop
a productive humility

00:28:41:05 - 00:28:44:05
that would make us value our planet more.

00:28:44:06 - 00:28:47:06
There is there is life
in the solar system, and it's here

00:28:48:13 - 00:28:52:06
and let's explore Earth.

00:28:52:06 - 00:28:53:22
Let's let's value Earth.

00:28:53:22 - 00:28:55:12
You mentioned intelligent life.

00:28:55:12 - 00:28:56:22
It's here on Earth.

00:28:56:22 - 00:29:00:13
I mean, it's almost like we also assume

00:29:00:13 - 00:29:03:15
that there's just intelligent life
all over the place.

00:29:03:22 - 00:29:07:23
How do we know that intelligence
is a convergent evolutionary phenomenon?

00:29:08:11 - 00:29:12:08
You know, I mean, maybe life
there is life elsewhere,

00:29:12:18 - 00:29:17:01
but maybe intelligence is just not all
it's cracked up to be.

00:29:17:18 - 00:29:21:12
Maybe is not adaptive in a lot of places
or anywhere else.

00:29:21:16 - 00:29:23:14
We've been searching for a long time.

00:29:23:14 - 00:29:25:12
And there's the Fermi paradox.

00:29:25:12 - 00:29:29:13
The nuclear physicist Fermi said, well,
if there is intelligent life elsewhere,

00:29:29:22 - 00:29:31:04
where are they?

00:29:31:04 - 00:29:32:20
Why would they contact us?

00:29:32:20 - 00:29:34:21
Where are they? Yeah, exactly.

00:29:34:21 - 00:29:36:23
So, you know,
I have to assume that somewhere

00:29:36:23 - 00:29:39:21
in this vast universe
there is there is intelligent life.

00:29:39:21 - 00:29:44:14
But I, I don't know if it's a, it's
a survival, survival trait.

00:29:44:14 - 00:29:45:18
Yeah.

00:29:45:18 - 00:29:51:21
I, I think we may find out over
the next century or so, on our own terms.

00:29:52:06 - 00:29:55:21
But,
I think I think we need to take advantage

00:29:55:21 - 00:30:01:08
of the intelligence we have now and
and do something, productive with it in

00:30:01:08 - 00:30:07:07
terms of maintaining our own environment
and, and, maintaining our, Earth.

00:30:07:17 - 00:30:08:21
I do want to be fair to you.

00:30:08:21 - 00:30:12:17
You are an advocate for space
exploration,

00:30:13:06 - 00:30:16:09
robotic, going out into space, but using,

00:30:16:18 - 00:30:20:19
you know, robotics
that, you know, sending humans. Why?

00:30:21:12 - 00:30:24:16
Why if you can send probes,
why send humans?

00:30:24:16 - 00:30:26:22
It just increase the cost.

00:30:26:22 - 00:30:29:22
It's just this romantic notion.

00:30:29:22 - 00:30:34:05
But there was talk
that, you know, at as things evolved,

00:30:34:05 - 00:30:38:11
while you're not going to get funding
unless you have the humans involved,

00:30:38:11 - 00:30:38:20
you know.

00:30:38:20 - 00:30:41:20
No Buck Rogers, no bucks,

00:30:41:20 - 00:30:44:09
thought on that.

00:30:44:09 - 00:30:45:23
Yeah. No Buck Rogers, no bucks.

00:30:45:23 - 00:30:47:15
Well, I had this great idea, though.

00:30:47:15 - 00:30:51:09
I think we need to concentrate
on artificially intelligent robots

00:30:51:10 - 00:30:54:19
and send them everywhere
in the solar system to explore

00:30:55:05 - 00:30:58:22
and have a high, high speed,
high bandwidth,

00:30:58:22 - 00:31:02:20
connection to Earth to send the data back
and create a virtual cosmos,

00:31:03:12 - 00:31:07:01
a virtual reality cosmos,
so that everybody on Earth

00:31:07:01 - 00:31:10:07
could walk on Venus,
we could explore Martian caves.

00:31:10:07 - 00:31:13:10
We could go, into the sub,

00:31:13:10 - 00:31:16:10
sub ice, oceans of of Europa.

00:31:16:13 - 00:31:20:01
And so that's that's
what I think you were toolmakers.

00:31:20:01 - 00:31:23:10
Let's make the tools 
to explore the

00:31:23:14 - 00:31:26:22
the solar system
and NASA's already doing that.

00:31:27:10 - 00:31:30:10
They're kind of not making it, obviously...

00:31:30:11 - 00:31:33:11
making it obvious
that's what they're doing.

00:31:33:11 - 00:31:35:15
But there's some really cool robots

00:31:35:15 - 00:31:38:15
that they're developing
that are actually going to be launched

00:31:38:18 - 00:31:40:02
soon.

00:31:40:02 - 00:31:45:03
There's one there's one called, CADRE
for the cooperative,

00:31:45:09 - 00:31:46:07
it's a mouthful,

00:31:46:07 - 00:31:49:13
cooperative, autonomous, distributed,
robotic exploration.

00:31:49:13 - 00:31:51:03
Okay. Big word.

00:31:51:03 - 00:31:53:22
What happens is a lander
comes down on the moon,

00:31:53:22 - 00:31:55:20
and it's being launched this year.

00:31:55:20 - 00:31:57:02
A lander comes down,

00:31:58:04 - 00:31:59:09
it lowers these

00:31:59:09 - 00:32:03:04
little, little wheeled robots,
three of them,

00:32:03:13 - 00:32:07:01
and they go scurrying
across the lunar surface and mapping it.

00:32:07:11 - 00:32:10:08
Using, ground penetrating radar.

00:32:10:08 - 00:32:12:21
But they're cooperating with each other.

00:32:12:21 - 00:32:13:12
It has nothing.

00:32:13:12 - 00:32:15:11
They don't even consult with humans.

00:32:15:11 - 00:32:16:22
They're talking to each other and saying,
okay,

00:32:16:22 - 00:32:19:11
you go over here and you go over here
and I'll go over here.

00:32:19:11 - 00:32:23:20
So that's the kind of thing that can be
done with artificial intelligence.

00:32:23:20 - 00:32:28:14
And we all know that artificial
intelligence is exploding on Earth.

00:32:28:22 - 00:32:32:14
Well, I think we need to apply it
to, the solar system.

00:32:32:20 - 00:32:33:05
Yeah.

00:32:33:05 - 00:32:35:22
The you know, there may be a good job
for artificial intelligence.

00:32:35:22 - 00:32:39:09
We just did a show on how
they're using it, for genetic engineering

00:32:39:09 - 00:32:43:16
and, very, very, dubious of that project.

00:32:43:16 - 00:32:47:02
And also the AI it really robs or

00:32:47:04 - 00:32:51:05
steals or uses a lot of energy and 
it is not free.

00:32:51:20 - 00:32:54:20
But but I do hear what you're saying.

00:32:54:22 - 00:32:57:08
Let's do space science
if we're going to do that.

00:32:57:08 - 00:33:00:17
But why do we need this infantile
notion of Buck Rogers?

00:33:00:23 - 00:33:01:17
Yeah, I'm.

00:33:01:17 - 00:33:04:07
I'm advocating what I call neuronauts.

00:33:04:07 - 00:33:08:19
And neuronauts are artificially
intelligent, spacecraft and landers

00:33:09:04 - 00:33:12:23
that work with scientists, on Earth,
and they collaborate.

00:33:13:14 - 00:33:18:03
And the scientists on Earth say,
okay, listen, we need to find out this

00:33:18:14 - 00:33:21:22
and
the artificially intelligent lander or,

00:33:22:10 - 00:33:25:16
rover or spacecraft says, okay,
I'm going to do it this way.

00:33:25:16 - 00:33:26:02
All right?

00:33:26:02 - 00:33:28:15
And the scientists
say, well, okay, go ahead.

00:33:28:15 - 00:33:30:11
And it goes and does that.

00:33:30:11 - 00:33:34:20
And there's another really cool, robot
that's going to be launched

00:33:34:20 - 00:33:39:03
in 2028 called Dragonfly,
And it's going to land on Titan.

00:33:39:20 - 00:33:43:02
And it looks like
this bobsled with propellers

00:33:43:12 - 00:33:47:19
and dragonfly is going to decide
for itself where it wants to go.

00:33:48:08 - 00:33:51:08
And dragonfly is going to say, okay,
the scientists are going to

00:33:51:08 - 00:33:54:08
say, look, we need to find out this,
this, this and this and dragonfly.

00:33:54:08 - 00:33:58:23
I say, okay, then I'm going to go up
in the atmosphere of Titan.

00:33:58:23 - 00:34:00:23
I'm going to go around
and I'm gonna look for a spot

00:34:00:23 - 00:34:02:14
that's going to help answer that.

00:34:02:14 - 00:34:05:16
And I'm going to land
and I take samples and drill and so forth,

00:34:06:00 - 00:34:07:03
and then I'm going to go over here,

00:34:07:03 - 00:34:10:09
and then I'm going to go over here,
and it's going to do it on its own.

00:34:10:21 - 00:34:14:21
So the bottom line is NASA
is already doing this.

00:34:15:09 - 00:34:19:22
And let's take this massive budget
that we're spending on landing a few,

00:34:20:16 - 00:34:23:14
humans on a radiation blasted surface

00:34:23:14 - 00:34:26:18
and instead spend it on these
artificially intelligent robots

00:34:27:16 - 00:34:30:13
that are going to get
far more information, data,

00:34:30:13 - 00:34:33:20
and send it back to Earth, and then
let us experience it for ourselves.

00:34:33:20 - 00:34:37:00
And let's keep all artificial intelligence
robots

00:34:37:00 - 00:34:40:00
on other planets
and moons of other planets.

00:34:40:07 - 00:34:42:08
We could agree on that.
We could agree on that.

00:34:42:08 - 00:34:43:02
Let's put it that way, Dennis.

00:34:43:02 - 00:34:47:06
I absolutely agree.
Because there's some aspects to

00:34:47:06 - 00:34:50:06
AI that are a little scary too, you know.

00:34:50:09 - 00:34:51:10
Yeah, yeah.

00:34:52:17 - 00:34:54:04
Yeah, I agree.

00:34:54:04 - 00:34:56:05
March 31st is the release date.

00:34:56:05 - 00:34:59:11
So how would anyone find out
more about this book or how to get it?

00:34:59:21 - 00:35:01:23
It's on Amazon.

00:35:01:23 - 00:35:04:23
And there's a website, earthbound
the book dot com

00:35:04:23 - 00:35:09:10
that has, table of contents,
the introduction, the references.

00:35:09:22 - 00:35:13:07
And I should say that one of the reasons
that I made it,

00:35:13:07 - 00:35:15:10
a pretty rigorous technical book

00:35:15:10 - 00:35:19:02
is that I didn't want people to say, well,
you just you're just hand-waving.

00:35:19:06 - 00:35:25:12
You don't have the data, so it has 644
references to scientific papers

00:35:25:18 - 00:35:29:11
so that any scientist who says that
I don't know what I'm talking about

00:35:29:11 - 00:35:33:13
can go back to the scientific papers
and reports, that I cite.

00:35:34:21 - 00:35:37:12
Let's hope
this starts to get some coverage.

00:35:37:12 - 00:35:40:04
I think it's very important now.

00:35:40:04 - 00:35:43:00
And that's one of the reasons
why I ask you on the show, is because we

00:35:43:00 - 00:35:48:11
right now, the techno
bros are having a lot of outsized,

00:35:48:11 - 00:35:53:15
I would say, outsized influence, 
on our culture right now.

00:35:53:15 - 00:35:56:16
And they they’re really pushing this,

00:35:56:16 - 00:36:00:00
you know,
humanity is going to seed the stars

00:36:00:04 - 00:36:04:06
and I don't know,
do you think they really believe that?

00:36:05:17 - 00:36:07:09
Well, they do,

00:36:07:09 - 00:36:10:09
but I see I see some cracks in the facade.

00:36:10:20 - 00:36:14:01
I see that Musk has just opened

00:36:14:08 - 00:36:18:21
a, request for proposals to study

00:36:19:06 - 00:36:23:01
the biological and physical
physiological effects of space.

00:36:23:16 - 00:36:25:10
And he's just starting. I think he won't.

00:36:25:10 - 00:36:29:03
They they're not saying this publicly,
not saying it out loud, but I think

00:36:29:03 - 00:36:33:23
even Musk is beginning to realize these,
these huge obstacles that he faces.

00:36:33:23 - 00:36:36:23
So even though he's a rocket man,

00:36:36:23 - 00:36:40:22
I think he's he's having a little,
or at least space X,

00:36:41:10 - 00:36:45:02
is having a little, 
some second thoughts or some,

00:36:45:07 - 00:36:49:16
some more sophisticated thoughts
about what the effects of of space are.

00:36:49:17 - 00:36:52:14
You know, now that we're talking about it,
I think maybe Musk could try.

00:36:52:14 - 00:36:55:04
I think I think Musk
oughta to try to get there.

00:36:58:02 - 00:36:59:22
If it's if it's Musk who's going

00:36:59:22 - 00:37:02:22
I'm all behind it. I'm all behind it.

00:37:03:15 - 00:37:04:04
You're not going to.

00:37:04:04 - 00:37:05:14
I know you're going to remain obscure
on that.

00:37:05:14 - 00:37:06:19
Yes, I am.

00:37:06:19 - 00:37:10:02
Dennis Meredith, thank you for joining us
and Breaking Green.

00:37:10:05 - 00:37:11:06
My pleasure Steve.

00:37:11:06 - 00:37:13:02
And again,
thanks so much for having me on.